2017 Oscar Predictions

Another year, another Oscars ceremony. After last year’s #OscarsSoWhite debacle, this year’s nominees include many non-white actors, actresses, directors, and movies. That being said… this year’s movies were sort of under par. Maybe I’m just not enlightened enough for this world, but out of the 9 Best Picture nominees, I can say I’d watch one, maybe 2 of them again. The rest… once was more than enough. Especially La La Land. I didn’t hate the clear frontrunner, but I do hate the hype it’s received. 14 nominations? And a guaranteed 6-8 wins?? Nah.

Here are my picks for tonight’s Oscars.

Best Picture:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”

“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”

Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis, “Fences”

Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Best Director:
“Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve
“Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle

“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins

Best Original Screenplay:
“Hell or High Water,” Taylor Sheridan
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle
“The Lobster,” Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan

“20th Century Women,” Mike Mills

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”

Best Foreign Language Film:
“Land of Mine”
“A Man Called Ove”
“The Salesman”

“Tanna”
“Toni Erdmann”

Best Cinematography:
“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”

Best Costume Design:
“Allied”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Jackie”

“La La Land”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
“A Man Called Ove”
“Star Trek Beyond”

“Suicide Squad”

Best Original Score:
”Jackie,” Mica Levi
“La La Land,” Justin Hurwitz

“Lion,” Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
“Moonlight,” Nicholas Britell
“Passengers,” Thomas Newman

Best Animated Feature Film:
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”

Best Animated Short Film:
“Blind Vaysha”
“Borrowed Time”
“Pear Cider and Cigarettes”
“Pearl”
“Piper”

Best Documentary Feature:
“Fire at Sea”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“Life Animated”
“O.J.: Made in America”

“13th”

Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Extremis”
“4.1 Miles”
“Joe’s Violin”
“Watani: My Homeland”
“The White Helmets”

Best Film Editing:
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”

Best Original Song:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land”
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”
“City of Stars” from “La La Land”

“The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story”
“How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”

Best Production Design:
“Arrival”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“La La Land”

“Passengers”

Best Live Action Short Film:
“Ennemis Interieurs”
“La femme et Le TGV”
“Silent Nights”
“Sing”
“Timecode”

Best Sound Editing:
“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”

“La La Land”
“Sully”

Best Sound Mixing:
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”

Best Visual Effects:
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Doctor Strange”
“The Jungle Book”

“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

2016 Emmy Predictions

The Emmy’s are always so difficult to adequately predict because their categories and rules keep changing year in and year out, but here goes nothing…

Outstanding Drama Series
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Americans (FX)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Mr. Robot (USA)
Homeland (Showtime)

Outstanding Comedy Series
Veep (HBO)
Transparent (Amazon)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Modern Family (ABC)
Master of None (Netflix)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
black-ish (ABC)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot (USA)
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards (Netflix)
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (AMC)
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan (Showtime)
Kyle Chandler, Bloodline (Netflix)
Matthew Rhys, The Americans (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder (ABC)
Robin Wright, House of Cards (Netflix)
Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime)
Taraji P. Henson, Empire (Fox)
Keri Russell, The Americans (FX)
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black (BBC America)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent (Amazon)
Aziz Ansari, Master of None (Netflix)
Anthony Anderson, black-ish (ABC)
William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime)
Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth (Fox)
Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish (ABC)
Laurie Metcalfe, Getting On (HBO)
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie (Netflix)

Outstanding Limited Series
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
Fargo (FX)
American Crime (ABC)
Roots (History)
The Night Manager (AMC)

Outstanding Television Movie
All the Way (HBO)
Confirmation (HBO)
Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)
Luther (BBC One)
A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Bryan Cranston, All the Way (HBO)
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)
Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
Cuba Gooding, Jr., The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
Idris Elba, Luther (BBC America)
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager (AMC)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
Kirsten Dunst, Fargo (FX)
Kerry Washington, Confirmation (HBO)
Felicity Huffman, American Crime (ABC)
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill (HBO)
Lili Taylor, American Crime (ABC)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Matt Walsh, Veep
Tony Hale, Veep

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Niecy Nash, Getting On
Allison Janney, Mom
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Judith Light, Transparent
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Constance Zimmer, UnREAL

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Jesse Plemons, Fargo
Bokeem Woodbine, Fargo
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
Sterling K. Brown, People v. O.J. Simpson
David Schwimmer, People v. O.J. Simpson
John Travolta, People v. O.J. Simpson

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Melissa Leo, All the Way
Regina King, American Crime
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel
Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel
Jean Smart, Fargo
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager

Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Max von Sydow, Game of Thrones
Reg E. Cathey, House of Cards
Mahershala Ali, House of Cards
Paul Sparks, House of Cards
Hank Azaria, Ray Donovan
Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
Tracy Morgan, Saturday Night Live
Larry David, Saturday Night Live
Bradley Whitford, Transparent
Martin Mull, Veep
Peter MacNicol, Veep

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Tina Fey & Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Amy Schumer, Saturday Night Live
Christine Baranski, The Big Bang Theory
Laurie Metcalf, The Big Bang Theory
Melora Hardin, Transparent

Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Laurie Metcalf, Horace and Pete
Molly Parker, House of Cards
Ellen Burstyn, House of Cards
Allison Janney, Masters of Sex
Margo Martindale, The Americans
Carrie Preston, The Good Wife

Outstanding Variety Talk Series
Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
The Late Late Show With James Corden (CBS)
Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO)

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
Documentary Now! (IFC)
Drunk History (Comedy Central)
Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
Portlandia (IFC)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Reality Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)
The Voice (NBC)
Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
Top Chef (Bravo)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)

Outstanding Host for Reality Competition
Ryan Seacrest (American Idol)
Tom Bergeron (Dancing With the Stars)
Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night)
Steve Harvey (Little Big Shots)
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn (Project Runway)
RuPaul Charles (RuPaul’s Drag Race)

Video

Christie’s Soliloquy

I had some fun with Chris Christie’s facial expressions during Trump’s Super Tuesday speech last week… The editing’s not perfect, but I think the lyrics and tone fit almost perfectly with nuances (or lack there of) in the New Jersey governor’s face.

2015 Oscars: PREDICTIONS!!

Update: After tallying up everything, I was 17 for 24. In the end, the Academy really didn’t like Boyhood. Thank God.

Here are my predictions for tonight’s 87th Academy Awards:

Documentary Short Subject
Perry Films, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Wajda Studio, Joanna
Warsaw Film School, Our Curse
Centro de Capacitación Cinematográfica, The Reaper (La Parka)
Weary Traveler, White Earth

Short Film, Live Action
Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis, Aya

Michael Lennox, director, and Ronan Blaney, Boogaloo and Graham
Hu Wei and Julien Féret, Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)
Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan EichenbergerParvaneh
Mat Kirkby, director and James Lucas, The Phone Call 

Short Film, Animated
Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees, The Bigger Picture
Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi, The Dam Keeper
Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed, Feast 
Torill Kove, Me and My Moulton
Joris Oprins, A Single Life

Best Documentary Feature
Citizenfour 
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Finding Vivian Maier
The Salt of the Earth

Best Foreign Film
Ida 
(Poland) 
Leviathan 
(Russia)
Tangerines
 (Estonia)
Timbuktu 
(Mauritania)
Wild Tales 
(Argentina)

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6 
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Song
Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley, and Nick Southwood, “Lost Stars” (Begin Again)
John Legend and Common, “Glory” (Selma
Shawn Patterson, Joshua Bartholomew, Lisa Harriton, and The Lonely Island, “Everything Is Awesome” (The Lego Movie)
Diane Warren, “Grateful” (Beyond the Lights)
Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell … I’ll Be Me)

Best Original Score
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar
Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner

Costume Design
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods

Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive, Maleficent
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard, Foxcatcher
Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, Guardians of the Galaxy

Production Design
Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Mr. Turner
Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock, Into the Woods
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis, and Paul Healy, Interstellar
Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana Macdonald, The Imitation Game

Sound Editing
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper 
Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock, Birdman
Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
Richard King, Interstellar
Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, Unbroken

Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Unbroken
Interstellar
Whiplash 

Visual Effects
Interstellar 
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
X Men: Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash 

Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman 
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert D. Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ryszard Lenczewski and Łukasz Żal, Ida
Roger Deakins, Unbroken

Best Adapted Screenplay
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game 

Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

Best Original Screenplay
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, Birdman 
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher

Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash 
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood 
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice 
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything 
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman 
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Best Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman 
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Selma
American Sniper

-Flipp

A Brief Post on Robin Williams

I don’t entirely know what to write on the subject and there has been plenty already written about it over the past two days; all I can say is Robin Williams was truly one of the funniest and most talented actors and comedians around, able to put a smile on people’s faces even when he could not manage one himself. His suicide is a sad, sad thing, and while countless other, smarter people can write about his depression, past addictions, and other demons, I would just like to say thank you to the man who played a large role in my childhood with his manically enthusiastic performances in Aladdin, Jumanji, and Flubber, and who taught me the lessons of perseverance, individuality, and sticking up for what is right in one of the most hauntingly beautiful films of all time, Dead Poets Society.

Now, any line from Dead Poets Society is worth quoting, but I will end this very brief post with this monologue (powerfully used in a recent iPad commercial) from one of Mr. Keating’s English classes:

We don’t read and write poetry because it’s cute. We read and write poetry because we are members of the human race. And the human race is filled with passion. And medicine, law, business, engineering, these are noble pursuits and necessary to sustain life. But poetry, beauty, romance, love, these are what we stay alive for. To quote from Whitman, “O me! O life!… of the questions of these recurring; of the endless trains of the faithless… of cities filled with the foolish; what good amid these, O me, O life?” Answer. That you are here – that life exists, and identity; that the powerful play goes on and you may contribute a verse. That the powerful play goes on and you may contribute a verse. What will your verse be?

O Captain! My Captain! Rest in peace.

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