My 2014 Emmy Predictions

Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson in “True Detective”

These are my predictions for tomorrow night’s Emmy Awards. It should be a big night for Breaking Bad, True Detective, and Fargo, to say the least. I am not familiar with some of the shows nominated, such as The Good Wife or Orange is the New Black, the latter of which is up for a multitude of awards and will probably win for Best Comedy Series. In cases like that, my predictions/thoughts will be based on the general consensus that I have gathered from friends and family who have watched these shows as well as from reviews and thoughts of critics online.

My predicted winners are in red and any additional thoughts of mine will be underneath each category in green.

Writing for a Comedy

David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik, Episodes
Louis C.K., Louie
Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan, Orange Is the New Black
Alec Berg, Silicon Valley
Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche, and Armando Iannucci, Veep

Directing for a Comedy

Iain B. MacDonald, Episodes
Paris Barclay, Glee
Louis C.K., Louie
Gail Mancuso, Modern Family
Jodie Foster, Orange Is the New Black
Mike Judge, Silicon Valley

Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

Colin Hanks, Fargo
Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart
Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow

Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven
Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
Allison Tolman, Fargo
Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart

I would really, really, REALLY like Allison Tolman to win for Fargo. She went head-to-head against Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman and was equal to, if not better than them a majority of the time.

Allison Tolman, Fargo

Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Ryan Murphy and Brad Falchuk, American Horror Story: Coven
Noah Hawley, Fargo
Neil Cross, Luther
Larry Kramer, The Normal Heart
Steven Moffat, Sherlock: His Last Vow
David Simon and Eric Overmyer, Treme

Hawley wrote all 10 episodes and completed the absurd task of creating a TV series based on one of the most critically-acclaimed movies of all time that can be called a masterpiece in its own right.

Directing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, American Horror Story: Coven
Adam Bernstein, Fargo
Colin Bucksey, Fargo
Stephen Frears, Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight
Ryan Murphy, The Normal Heart
Nick Hurran, Sherlock: His Last Vow

Fargo‘s pilot was incredible. 

Writing for a Variety Series

The Colbert Report
The Daily Show
Inside Amy Schumer
Key & Peele
Portlandia
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Fallon has been absolutely wonderful since taking over for Jay Leno earlier this year. He is a breath of fresh air in the late night talk show universe.

Guest Actress in a Comedy

Natasha Lyonne, Orange Is the New Black
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Laverne Cox, Orange Is the New Black
Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Joan Cusack, Shameless

Guest Actor in a Comedy

Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
Nathan Lane, Modern Family
Steve Buscemi, Portlandia
Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live
Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live
Gary Cole, Veep

Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Allison Janney, Mom
Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Fred Armisen, Portlandia
Tony Hale, Veep

Directing for a Drama

Tim Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire
Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad
David Evans, Downton Abbey
Neil Marshall, Game of Thrones
Carl Franklin, House of Cards
Cary Joji Fukunaga, True Detective

Gilligan and Fukunaga both did amazing jobs on Breaking Bad and True Detective, respectively, but it is Marshall and his 50-minute Battle of the Wall that served as the penultimate episode of Game of Thrones who deserves this directing award.

Writing for a Drama

Moira Walley-Beckett, Breaking Bad
Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones
Beau Willimon, House of Cards
Nic Pizzolatto, True Detective

Walley-Beckett’s “Ozymandias” is one of THE great TV episodes of all time, and this award is a no-brainer, even considering Vince Gilligan’s ability to tie up all loose ends in one of the neatest series finales of all time, “Felina.” 

Guest Actress in a Drama

Margo Martindale, The Americans
Diana Rigg, Game of Thrones
Kate Mara, House of Cards
Allison Janney, Masters of Sex
Jane Fonda, The Newsroom
Kate Burton, Scandal

I mean, she poisoned King Joffrey. Give her ALL the awards.

Guest Actor in a Drama

Paul Giamatti, Downton Abbey
Dylan Baker, The Good Wife
Reg E. Cathey, House of Cards
Robert Morse, Mad Men
Beau Bridges, Masters of Sex
Joe Morton, Scandal

This.

Supporting Actress in a Drama

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Supporting Actor in a Drama

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Peter Dinklage’s speech at the end of “The Laws of Gods and Men” is one for the ages.

Television Movie

Killing Kennedy
Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight
The Normal Heart
Sherlock: His Last Vow
The Trip to Bountiful

Miniseries

American Horror Story: Coven
Bonnie & Clyde
Fargo
Luther
Treme
The White Queen

Variety Series

The Colbert Report
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Real Time With Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Please not SNL. I’d rather Bill Maher won over SNL.

Reality Competition Program

The Amazing Race
Dancing With the Stars
Project Runway
So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef
The Voice

Lead Actress in a Comedy

Lena Dunham, Girls
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Lead Actor in a Comedy

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Ricky Gervais, Derek
Matt LeBlanc,, Episodes
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
William H. Macy, Shameless

Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven
Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon
Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Lead Actress in a Drama

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Claire Danes, Homeland
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
Kerry Washington, Scandal

Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Martin Freeman, Fargo
Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
Idris Elba, Luther
Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow

Can there be a tie? Martin and Thorton were both exquisite in Fargo, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with the actor who had to show a much greater range, and that was Martin Freeman as the loser insurance salesman-turned-murderous creep.

Lead Actor in a Drama

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Woody Harrelson, True Detective
Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Hey, if Jeff Daniels won last year, maybe he can upset again this year…right? I think I’d throw my computer at my TV if that happens. While I would love Jon Hamm to FINALLY win an award for playing Don Draper, this race is definitely between Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey. Cranston was perfect in the final 8 episodes of Breaking Bad, especially Ozymandias,” but McConaughey has the story and the hype and the momentum (AND THE OSCAR) behind him. Purely the fact that Craston already has three Emmys for playing Walter White says that McConaughey will get it this time. And poor Woody. He was great in True Detective too, but not existential meltdown-good.

Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory
Louie
Modern Family
Orange Is the New Black
Silicon Valley
Veep

Ah, screw it. I said Orange might win above but I think Louie could manage an upset. Let’s go with that. 

Drama Series

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men
True Detective

The final award of the night is definitely between Breaking Bad and True DetectiveGame of Thrones was great (and my personal favorite of all the shows nominated), but it wasn’t as good as past seasons and some rare “off moments” (coughincestrapecough) soured its overall taste in my mouth. Mad Man was the same as ever, slow and smoldering with some awesome moments to close out the season, but its time in the Emmy limelight has clearly passed – any chance at another win will have to be next year for its final season. I have not seen Downton Abbey so I cannot say whether it has a chance or not for myself, but I did see House of Cards, and this season was… well, it was quite bad. (Thanks for taking Hannibal‘s spot, dude…)

Last but not least, I would much rather have had True Detective in the Miniseries category as it will not have the same cast next season, just like Fargo and American Horror Story. Also, while I really enjoyed True Detective, especially the performances from its two leads and the long take at the end of Episode 5, I felt it was a lot slower than it should have been, and its ending – which I happened to love – divided a lot of people who had been watching the show from the beginning. Breaking Bad had the more perfect eight-episode block, and I personally have never been more engaged by a show than when its final season aired last summer. The time in between episodes seemed insurmountable!  From Hank confronting Walt early on, to Jesse’s betrayal, to the cut-to-black in the middle of a climactic gunfight in the desert… those cliffhangers caused me heart problems! The final four episodes, “To’hajilee,” “Ozymandias,” “Granite State,” and “Felina,” will be studied by filmmakers and storytellers alike for years to come. THAT is how you end a television show.

Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad’s “Ozymandias”

– Flipp

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